Study reports US health rankings to plummet by 2050

Study reports US health rankings to plummet by 2050 | Image Credit: © oatawa - © oatawa - stock.adobe.com.

Health progress in the United States is steadily declining, causing the nation to fall behind the pace of many other countries worldwide, according to a recent study published in The Lancet.¹

Health estimates were measured by investigators from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), alongside forecasts for morbidity, mortality, and life expectancy (LE) based on over 350 diseases and injuries and 68 risks. Measurements were from 1990 to 2050 in the United States.

According to the data, LE in the United States will rise from 78.3 years in 2022 to 79.9 years in 2035. Additionally, the US LE is expected to further increase to 80.4 years in 2050.

Based on these estimates, the United States is expected to fall from rank 49 in 2022 to rank 66 in 2050 when compared with the 204 countries in territories within the Global Burden of Disease study.² Previously, improvements in LE were reported because of decreasing mortality rates from leading causes of death such as cancer and stroke from 1990 to 2021.¹

Despite this progress, forecasts indicate the United States will rank significantly lower than other nations in health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), defined as the average number of years an individual is expected to live in good health. By 2050, the United States’ rank for HALE is expected to drop to 108, compared to 80 in 2022.

The declines are sharper in women’s health than men’s compared to other countries. Estimates have predicted a decrease in female HALE within 20 states by 2050. Additionally, the female LE in the United States is forecasted to be rank 74 in 2050. In comparison, ranks were 19 in 1990 and 51 in 2022.

Male LE is forecasted to be rank 65 in 2050, vs rank 35 in 1990 and rank 51 in 2022. These forecasts indicate US rankings will be below most high-income countries and some middle-income countries.

A decrease in mortality rates has been linked to the slight increase in US LE forecasted for 2050. This includes a 49.4% decrease in ischemic heart disease death rates, a 40.5% decrease in stroke death rates, and a 35.7% decrease in diabetes death rates.

“In spite of modest increases in life expectancy overall, our models forecast health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never before seen,” said co-senior author Professor Christopher JL Murray, Director of IHME.

Additional concerning trends have been reported in the United States. This includes an 878% increase in the rate of deaths from drug use disorders, from 2 per 100,000 individuals in 1990 to 19.5 per 100,000 in 2021. From 2022 to 2050, this rate is expected to increase another 34%, reaching 26.7 deaths per 100,000 individuals by 2050.

Investigators noted that 12.4 million deaths among US individuals by 2050 could be avoided through eliminating major risk factors such as obesity, high blood sugar, and high blood pressure. However, the gains would not be enough to improve the United States’ global ranking if these risk factors were eliminated worldwide.

Regardless, millions of lives may be saved through the elimination of a single risk factors. This includes 2.1 million less deaths by 2050 through reducing smoking in the United States to the level of the lowest rates.

“The rapid decline of the US in global rankings from 2022 to 2050 rings the alarm for immediate action,” said co-senior author Stein Emil Vollset, MD, MPH, DrPH, Affiliate Professor from IHME. “The US must change course and find new and better health strategies and policies that slow down the decline in future health outcomes.”

References

1. Increases in US life expectancy forecasted to stall by 2050, poorer health expected to cause nation’s global ranking to drop. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. December 5, 2024. Accessed December 19, 2024. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1066973
2. Global burden of disease (GBD). Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Accessed December 19, 2024. https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/gbd